New Delhi, 17 May 2025
The launch of India’s Operation Sindoor on 7 May 2025, targeting nine terrorist bases in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), has escalated tensions between New Delhi and Islamabad, drawing global attention to the volatile region.
The operation, a response to the 22 April Pahalgam terror attack that killed 26 civilians, has also spotlighted China’s activities in PoK, a territory India claims as part of Jammu and Kashmir. As Pakistan’s closest ally and a major investor in the region, China’s actions in PoK since the operation raise questions about its strategic intentions and the broader implications for South Asian geopolitics.
This analysis explores China’s role in PoK post-Operation Sindoor, drawing on recent developments, historical ties, and expert perspectives.
Historical Context: China’s Growing Presence in PoK
China’s engagement in PoK dates back decades, primarily through infrastructure projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a $62 billion flagship of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative.
PoK, encompassing areas like Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir, hosts key CPEC projects, including the Karakoram Highway and hydropower dams such as the Neelum-Jhelum and Kohala projects. In 2023, Chinese firms employed over 8,000 workers in PoK, with investments exceeding $15 billion in energy and transport infrastructure, according to Pakistan’s Ministry of Planning.
China’s presence has long been contentious.
India accuses Beijing of violating its sovereignty by operating in PoK, while local residents have protested against environmental damage and displacement.
Since 2019, when India revoked Jammu and Kashmir’s semi-autonomous status, China has intensified its diplomatic support for Pakistan’s stance on Kashmir, raising the issue at the UN Security Council. Operation Sindoor, which struck five targets in PoK, including the Syedna Bilal Camp in Muzaffarabad, has heightened scrutiny of China’s role, particularly as Pakistan alleges civilian casualties and seeks Beijing’s backing.
China’s Response to Operation Sindoor
China’s official reaction to Operation Sindoor was measured but supportive of Pakistan.
On 7 May, Beijing’s Foreign Ministry labeled India’s strikes “regrettable,” urging both sides to exercise “maximum restraint” to preserve regional stability. The statement emphasized China’s opposition to terrorism but avoided direct criticism of India, reflecting a cautious approach. China sought to protect its strategic interests, particularly CPEC, while avoiding entanglement in the conflict.
However, evidence of Chinese involvement in Pakistan’s military response has emerged.
Pakistan’s retaliatory drone and missile attacks, which targeted Indian sites on 7-10 May, involved Chinese-made PL-15 air-to-air missiles and JF-17 fighter jets, co-developed by China and Pakistan. Indian officials reported recovering debris of a PL-15 missile in Punjab’s Hoshiarpur, highlighting China’s role as Pakistan’s primary arms supplier.
Over the past decade, China has provided Pakistan with $20 billion in military hardware, including 240 PL-15 missiles and Wing Loong drones, some of which were used in PoK-based operations.
Reports also indicate Chinese surveillance activities.
Post-Sindoor, over 200 Chinese “fishing boats” were deployed to the Indian Ocean to monitor Indian naval movements, raising concerns about Beijing’s intelligence-gathering.
The detection of a Huawei satellite phone linked to China’s Beidou navigation system in Pahalgam after the April attack suggests deeper technological coordination with Pakistan’s military.
Strategic Motivations
China’s actions in PoK reflect a blend of economic, military, and geopolitical priorities:
1. Safeguarding CPEC Investments
PoK is critical to CPEC’s northern corridor, linking China’s Xinjiang region to Gwadar Port. Operation Sindoor’s strikes in Muzaffarabad, 30 km from the Line of Control, disrupted areas near CPEC projects, prompting Chinese concerns about asset security. Beijing’s deployment of surveillance vessels and diplomatic calls for de-escalation underscore its intent to protect these investments, which account for 20% of CPEC’s total funding.
2. Countering India’s Regional Influence
China views India as a strategic rival, particularly after New Delhi’s alignment with the US and its development of Chabahar Port in Iran, a counter to Gwadar.
By bolstering Pakistan’s military capabilities in PoK, China aims to keep India engaged on its western border, diverting resources from the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh, where India and China clashed in 2020. Indian military experts note that China’s supply of advanced weaponry, like the J-10CE jets used in PoK, serves this purpose.
3. Testing Military Technology
Operation Sindoor provided a real-world test for Chinese weaponry.
The PL-15 missile’s failure to breach India’s air defense systems, including the S-400, drew criticism from Indian officials, who showcased its wreckage as evidence of technological inferiority.
However, Chinese analysts argue that the conflict advertises Beijing’s arms capabilities, potentially attracting buyers in the Global South.
Economic and Diplomatic Shifts
The ceasefire announced on 10 May, mediated partly through US efforts, impacted Chinese defense stocks.
Shares of AVIC Chengdu Aircraft and Zhuzhou Hongda, linked to PL-15 production, fell by up to 9% on 13 May, erasing gains fueled by expectations of arms sales to Pakistan. This suggests market sensitivity to de-escalation and China’s limited appetite for prolonged conflict.
Diplomatically, China’s stance was less pro-Pakistan than expected.
Congress leader Shashi Tharoor noted that Beijing prioritized its $400 billion trade relationship with India, especially in a “Trumpian world of high tariffs,” over unequivocal support for Pakistan. At a UN Security Council meeting on 8 May, China joined calls for restraint, avoiding Pakistan’s push to condemn India. This reflects Beijing’s balancing act between its “all-weather” alliance with Pakistan and economic ties with India.
Risks and Challenges
China’s deepened involvement in PoK carries risks. First, it fuels India’s accusations of Beijing violating its sovereignty, potentially escalating tensions along the LAC. India’s post-Sindoor rhetoric, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowing “no distinction between terrorists and their sponsors,” signals readiness to target Pakistan’s backers indirectly.
Second, local discontent in PoK, where residents resent Chinese projects for marginalizing communities, could intensify, mirroring protests in Balochistan against CPEC. In 2024, Gilgit-Baltistan saw demonstrations against Chinese dam construction, with 60% of locals reporting no economic benefits, per a local NGO survey.
Third, China’s military support risks drawing it into a proxy conflict.
Indian analysts warn that New Delhi may retaliate by supporting Tibetan or Taiwanese causes, leveraging its growing Western alliances. The US, which assessed Pakistan’s downing of at least one Indian Rafale jet using Chinese jets, may increase scrutiny of Beijing’s arms exports, complicating its global ambitions.
Regional and Global Implications
China’s activities in PoK post-Sindoor reinforce its role as Pakistan’s strategic patron but complicate its image as a neutral regional power.
For India, China’s presence in PoK strengthens the case for integrating the region into its counter-terrorism strategy, as evidenced by Operation Sindoor’s PoK targets. Amjad Ayub Mirza, a PoK-based analyst, warned that terrorist camps in Muzaffarabad and Leepa Valley remain active, relocated but not dismantled, posing ongoing threats.
Globally, the conflict highlights a proxy contest between Chinese and Western military technology. India’s success in neutralizing Chinese missiles with indigenous and Russian systems bolsters its defense credentials, while China’s arms face reputational challenges. The US and UK, which debated Sindoor in Parliament, urged de-escalation, signaling reluctance to see China’s influence grow through prolonged conflict.
Conclusion
China’s post-Operation Sindoor activities in PoK—spanning military support, surveillance, and diplomatic maneuvering—reflect a calculated effort to protect its economic and strategic interests while countering India’s regional clout.
However, Beijing’s cautious diplomacy and the underperformance of its weaponry suggest limits to its commitment. As India and Pakistan navigate a fragile ceasefire, China’s role in PoK will remain a flashpoint, testing its ability to balance alliance obligations with broader geopolitical goals.
The coming months will reveal whether Beijing doubles down on PoK or seeks to de-escalate to safeguard its regional investments.
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